A Tale of Two Worlds

Posted on May 20, 2024

A Tale of Two Worlds

Imagining Deterministic and Free-Willed Universes (Essay I wrote ~ 2022)

Two Worlds by Kazzie Donaire

I have a confession to make. During a Philosophy class discussion about Determinism and Free Will, I had what I now recognize as a false epiphany: I believed there was no point in debating which system governs our universe. Whether we live in a deterministic or a free-willed world seemed irrelevant. This admittedly simplistic view is likely the result of my shallow thinking, but it inspired today’s thought experiment: What if we knew with absolute certainty which system of fate exists?

For simplicity, I’ll set aside how such knowledge might affect religious groups or ideological minorities. Instead, let’s explore these two hypothetical worlds—one where fate is predetermined, and one where we control our destiny.

Before we begin our journey, consider this: would you prefer a life where you carry the weight of fate in your hands, or one where you’re carried by it? Let’s explore both possibilities.

The Deterministic World

The Could-Have-Been Past

Imagine yourself as a villager in pre-Enlightenment 17th century England. like today’s middle-schoolers, your understanding of the universe is limited, but you know one fact with certainty: the world you inhabit is the only possible world. Everything is predetermined.

In such a world, one might expect chaos—after all, if villagers don’t bear moral responsibility for their actions (they couldn’t help but act as they did!), why maintain order? But that’s not how a deterministic society would function. Instead, the prevalent attitude would be: “This is how things ought to be. Who are we to challenge that?”

As a villager, you were predetermined to work the fields until death. The Lord was born to privilege because that’s the only way things could unfold. There’s no incentive to strive for a better life or spark an industrial revolution—you’re simply fulfilling your predestined role in the cosmic machinery.

The Far Future

Now jump to the distant future. You’re a twenty-something urbanite in a technologically advanced nation that leads in universe-simulation technology. Your government has developed the classified “Life-Path-Determiner"™—a program that simulates the entire universe down to the smallest particle and accurately predicts everyone’s future.

Innovation proceeds along a predetermined path, as there’s only one possible route to complete knowledge. You work in the Department of Deforcing, researching attempts to alter nature’s course, unaware of the Life-Path-Determiner’s existence. Your job involves running experiments:

  1. Someone’s life course is predetermined, and you’re tasked with sabotaging a specific event—say, a romantic date.
  2. You approach the subject before the date occurs.
  3. You attempt sabotage, sometimes succeeding, sometimes failing.
  4. The computer’s prediction is always correct, regardless of outcome.

The government, satisfied with this system, runs a simulation of the country’s future, only to discover a frightening inevitability: an enemy nation will launch a nuclear attack, and your country cannot survive—no matter what actions are taken. When this information leaks, citizens respond not with chaos, but with resigned acceptance of the inevitable.

The Free-Willed Universe

The Historical Perspective

Now imagine yourself in another version of pre-Enlightenment England, but one where free will is an established fact. Today is “burn a thief” day—a rare spectacle where a convicted thief faces death by fire. Such events are uncommon because thieves know the punishment is excruciating death.

Why such severity? In this world, everyone bears complete moral responsibility for their actions. The thief could have chosen honest work but didn’t. This choice reveals a fundamental moral flaw deserving the harshest punishment. Unlike the deterministic world, your character doesn’t develop from past actions—each choice stands independently, unconstrained by history.

The Future of Choice

In this world’s far future, a government develops decision-making algorithms to help citizens navigate their choices. The human decision process might look something like this:

  1. List all possible actions (e.g., “Attend philosophy lecture” or “Stay home”)
  2. Predict outcomes for each action (e.g., “Learn about metaphysics but sacrifice rest” vs. “Rest but miss learning opportunity”)
  3. Evaluate preferred outcomes
  4. Choose accordingly

The government’s software enhances this process, modeling probabilities for optimal outcomes. CEOs can optimize business decisions or not; graduates can select majors aligned with their abilities or choose differently. Innovation may come more slowly than in a deterministic world, but as they say, “the journey is the destination.”

One troubling aspect of this society: attitudes toward the disadvantaged are harsh. The homeless are viewed as “sore losers” who should simply choose better circumstances. Social programs are considered unnecessary accommodations for those unwilling to exercise their free will effectively.

The Choice Is Yours

So, which world would you prefer to inhabit? One where your path is predetermined but responsibility is diminished, or one where your choices are truly your own but carry the full weight of consequence?

Inspired by:

  1. LessWrong’s summary of Eliezer’s position on free will
  2. Mind Matters: But Is Determinism True?